A client texted me this week with a simple question: "Didn't rates just drop below 6% a few months ago? What happened?"

Fair question. It's been a whiplash few months for anyone watching the housing market — and the reason behind it isn't really about housing at all.

What's actually happening.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 7.22% this week, according to Mortgage News Daily — a 52-week high. That's a sharp reversal from just seven months ago, when Freddie Mac's 30-year rate dipped to 5.98% in late February, its lowest point of the year. On a $500,000 mortgage, that swing is the difference between a principal-and-interest payment of roughly $2,990 a month and roughly $3,400 a month — about $410 more, every month, for the same house.

Why rates spiked so fast.

This one traces back to the Middle East, not the Fed. Escalating fighting between the US and Iran has pushed oil prices above $100 a barrel for the first time since May. That's rattled bond markets — investors are pricing in the risk of renewed inflation from higher energy costs, and the 10-year Treasury yield (which mortgage rates closely track) has surged to multi-year highs, climbing more than 12 basis points in less than a week. The U.S. Treasury Department has tried stepping in with larger bond buybacks to push yields back down, but so far it hasn't made much of a dent.

Layered on top of that: the national debt just crossed $39 trillion, following the largest single budget increase since World War II. More federal borrowing generally means more competition for the same pool of investor dollars — which tends to push yields, and therefore mortgage rates, higher still.

What this means if you're house hunting right now.

Zillow has revised its year-end rate forecast up to 6.7%, and most housing economists now expect rates to stay elevated through the rest of the year. Zillow's senior economist Kara Ng summed up the squeeze well this week: with inflation outpacing wage growth, "there's little breathing room left in budgets" for a lot of households.

There is one silver lining: with buyer demand cooling as rates rise, many parts of the country have quietly shifted into buyer's markets. Home prices have been drifting down slightly since early 2025, and buyers in a lot of areas now have more negotiating room than they did a year ago — even if the "low rate, low price" combination everyone's waiting for hasn't shown up yet.

Why this is exactly the kind of decision a flat-fee advisor is built for.

A decision like "should I buy now at 7%, wait it out, or adjust my price range" isn't really a mortgage question — it's a full financial picture question. It touches your cash flow, your other savings goals, how a bigger payment affects your tax situation if you're self-employed, and whether the "right" move even changes if rates drop again next year.

This is where a flat-fee model matters more than people usually realize. A commission-based mortgage broker or a percentage-of-assets advisor has some incentive, even a subtle one, tied to the transaction happening a certain way. A flat-fee advisor doesn't get paid more if you buy, wait, or walk away — the fee is the same either way. That means the advice you get is about what's actually right for your numbers, not what closes a deal or keeps assets under management.

Concretely, that looks like:

• Running the real numbers on renting-and-investing versus buying at today's rate, using your actual income and goals — not a generic rule of thumb.
• Stress-testing whether a $3,400/month payment still works if the market corrects, your income dips, or rates climb further.
• Timing the decision around your full financial picture — tax situation, other savings goals, business cash flow — instead of in isolation.

The bottom line: Rates didn't spike because of anything happening in the housing market — they spiked because of oil prices and bond yields reacting to a conflict on the other side of the world. That's exactly the kind of moment where it pays to have someone looking at your whole financial picture instead of just the mortgage quote in front of you.

If you're weighing a home purchase in this environment, or wondering whether to wait it out, click Book A Meeting.

FAQ On Buying A Home

1. Didn’t mortgage rates drop below 6% recently? What happened? Rates did fall earlier in the year. Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed rate dipped to 5.98% in late February, its lowest point of the year. The post reports that the rate has since climbed to 7.22%, a 52-week high, according to Mortgage News Daily.
2. Why did rates rise so quickly? The rise was driven mainly by events in the Middle East rather than Federal Reserve policy. Escalating fighting involving the U.S. and Iran pushed oil above $100 a barrel. Investors responded by pricing in renewed inflation risk, which pushed up the 10-year Treasury yield. Mortgage rates tend to track that yield.
3. How much more would I pay per month at today’s rates? Using the post’s example, a $500,000 mortgage carries a principal-and-interest payment of about $2,990 a month at 5.98% and about $3,400 at 7.22%. That is roughly $410 more every month for the same house.
4. Is the housing market getting better for buyers? Possibly. Buyer demand has cooled as rates rise, and home prices have drifted slightly lower since early 2025. Many areas have more negotiating room than a year ago. Low rates and low prices together have not yet returned, though.
5. Will rates come back down soon? Nobody can say for certain. Zillow raised its year-end rate forecast to 6.7%, and most housing economists expect rates to stay elevated through the rest of the year.
6. Should I buy a home now, or wait? The answer depends on your whole financial picture, including cash flow, other savings goals, and tax situation. A higher payment may or may not fit your budget, and the answer can change if rates move again. Running the numbers on renting and investing versus buying, and stress-testing a higher payment, can help frame the decision.
7. How can a financial advisor help with this decision? A flat-fee advisor’s fee does not change based on whether you buy, wait, or walk away. That means the advice is about what fits your numbers, not what closes a transaction or keeps assets under management. Advice can cover running the numbers, stress-testing a payment against income drops or market declines, and timing the decision around your tax situation and business cash flow.